PhD Studentship (NERC GW4+ DTP) - Advancing Weather and Climate Prediction: Breaking the Convergence Barrier (September 2025 Entry)

About the Partnership

This project is one of a number that are in competition for funding from the NERC Great Western Four+ Doctoral Training Partnership (GW4+ DTP). The GW4+ DTP consists of the Great Western Four alliance of the University of Bath, University of Bristol, Cardiff University and the University of Exeter plus five Research Organisation partners: British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,  the Natural History Museum and Plymouth Marine Laboratory. The partnership aims to provide a broad training in earth and environmental sciences, designed to train tomorrow’s leaders in earth and environmental science. For further details about the programme please see http://nercgw4plus.ac.uk/

Project details

For information relating to the research project please contact the lead Supervisor via j.thuburn@exeter.ac.uk

Project Aims and Methods

Weather and climate prediction models generally get more accurate as resolution is refined. However, this trend slows or even halts for horizontal resolutions finer than about 1km, limiting our ability to forecast severe weather. A new model developed at the Met Office (GungHo) will soon be used operationally at kilometre-scale. A pressing need is to understand what factors limit model accuracy at these scales and how to improve them. 

At sub-km resolution models begin to resolve cumulus convection and boundary-layer turbulence. The flow regime becomes more complex, with shallow spectra. Thus, the research must address the complex, poorly understood interplay between numerical methods and flow characteristics. 

Model results can be extremely sensitive to numerical choices such as advection scheme or timestep size. Can we quantify and understand these sensitivites for GungHo? GungHo is stable and efficient at coarser resolutions. But what is the maximum stable timestep at sub-km resolution? What factors limit the stability? Would different numerical methods be more cost-effective at sub-km resolution? 

We seek a Doctoral Researcher strong in mathematics, fluid dynamics, and computational modelling to help answer these questions. We will support the Researcher to refine the research direction according to their interests as the project evolves. 

Project partners

The Met Office will contribute to the project through hosting regular visits from the Doctoral Researcher, including a 6-month internship in year 2. Met Office supervisor time and expertise. Training in the use of the Next Generation Modelling System (NGMS) software, including set-up, running, diagnostics, visualisation, and interpretation. Computing facilities for running NGMS (subject to security clearance). Participation in group discussions. 

Training

The DTP offers funding to undertake specialist training relating to the student’s specialist area of research. 

To apply, please click on the ‘Apply’ button above

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