PhD Studentship: Demystifying the Signal-to-noise Paradox in Climate Predictions - NERC GW4+ DTP PhD studentship for September 2025 Entry Ref 5395

About the Partnership

This project is one of a number that are in competition for funding from the NERC Great Western Four+ Doctoral Training Partnership (GW4+ DTP). The GW4+ DTP consists of the Great Western Four alliance of the University of Bath, University of Bristol, Cardiff University and the University of Exeter plus five Research Organisation partners: British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, the Natural History Museum and Plymouth Marine Laboratory. The partnership aims to provide a broad training in earth and environmental sciences, designed to train tomorrow’s leaders in earth and environmental science. For further details about the programme please see nercgw4plus.ac.uk.

Project details

For information relating to the research project please contact the lead Supervisor via j.screen@exeter.ac.uk

Project Aims and Methods

Whether trying to predict the financial markets, sports results, or the weather, the challenge is to identify the predictable signal amidst the unpredictable elements or noise. In seasonal climate prediction, numerical models are used to forecast the likely evolution of atmosphere and ocean for the next few months. However, these models underestimate the predictable signal of the North Atlantic climate – the so-called signal-to-noise paradox. This implies that more skilful forecasts of UK weather and climate are possible if the paradox can be resolved. A critical open question is whether the problem also affects projections of future climate – the basis for decision making on climate change. This project will compare observations to climate predictions, to seek to understand the causes of weak signals in models and assess whether projections of future climate are credible. Within that broad context, there are many directions the project could take, and the doctoral researcher would be supported to co-design a project that fits their interests and vision. In all cases, the project will provide opportunities to develop collaborations with partners, including the Met Office and National Oceanography Centre, and provide training in numerical modelling, statistics and data science, and weather and climate physics. 

Project partners

Project CASE partner 

The Met Office will contribute co-supervision, provision of data and hosting visits.  

Project Collaborative partner 

The National Oceanography Centre will contribute co-supervision and hosting visits.  

Training

The DTP offers funding to undertake specialist training relating to the student’s specialist area of research. 

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